Beijing’s Solar Panel Oversupply Crackdown Unlikely to Lift Global Prices, Says US Firm

Global solar panel prices are expected to remain low through 2025, as Beijing’s recent efforts to curb oversupply in the photovoltaic (PV) industry are seen as insufficient, according to a report by US advisory firm Clean Energy Associates (CEA).

Joseph Johnson, associate director for market intelligence at CEA, said current measures lack the substance needed to impact existing manufacturing capacity, which continues to drive down international PV module and input prices.

In February, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced plans to limit the expansion of low-quality production capacity. The ministry said it would introduce policies later this year focused on technological development, industry standards and intellectual property rights.

These announcements follow earlier efforts by the Chinese government and industry groups. In December, more than 30 leading solar PV manufacturers proposed limiting production and raising market prices. In November, the MIIT introduced new rules to increase investment and efficiency standards for domestic PV manufacturing.

Despite these moves, Johnson said the policies are unlikely to trigger a sharp market correction. Instead, he expects a gradual recovery in pricing.

In China, prices for solar cells, modules and polysilicon have seen moderate increases since the start of the year. This is largely due to a surge in installations following a new policy from the National Energy Administration, which applies to distributed solar power projects operational after May.

Infolink Consulting reported that the recent price uptick may be sustainable until late April, though it is already nearing its limit.

Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said in February that PV installation growth in 2025 is expected to slow to 215 to 255 gigawatts, down from a record 277 gigawatts in 2024. He added that growth would remain slow over the next five years.

This outlook signals continued challenges for Chinese solar PV producers, who are grappling with overcapacity, weakening domestic demand, a price war and increased tariffs from Europe and the US.

In response to fierce competition, solar manufacturers have increasingly turned to patent litigation to block rivals from entering premium markets such as Europe, the US, Japan and Australia.

In February, US-based First Solar filed a patent lawsuit against Chinese competitor Jinko Solar. That same month, Chinese manufacturer Longi filed two patent infringement lawsuits against Jinko Solar, alleging misuse of its solar cell technology in China and the US.

CEA said the litigating companies are seeking injunctions to prevent competitors from exporting products to Europe and other key markets.

The firm noted that with aggressive pricing, Chinese manufacturers are attempting to push rivals out of the market by imposing financial penalties or limiting their product offerings.

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• Global solar panel prices expected to stay low through 2025

• Beijing’s policy measures seen as insufficient to curb oversupply

• Chinese PV producers face overcapacity, weak demand and trade barriers

Source: SCMP